"ANYBODY CAN BE BEAT!" - Bart Scott

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Sports-ophrenia: What is Bradley's Fate at Arch Madness?

In the last few months, my car's radiator has been on the fritz. At first, it was leaking coolant due to a loose hose clamp, then (supposedly) the thermostat was broken. Still, it continues to give me fits as I anxiously watch the engine temperature gauge jump frantically from the red to the black. This bit of automobile bipolarity reminded me of another stressful life situation: being able to see both sides of an argument.

Good debates, by nature, have arguments on both sides that are reasonable, but it's much easier to back one side or the other. However, there are those maddening times where you have one foot in both camps. It's usually relegated to today's pressing issues, like "Wendy's or McDonald's?"; "paper or plastic?"; and "Zoe Saldana or Emma Stone?"

With that mind, I thought up a monthly topic for Life in the Cheap Seats: Sports-o-phrenia. I'll take a topic and argue for both sides, while trying not to drive myself crazy in the process. After going to two Bradley games this week (Wednesday's loss to Illinois State and today's home win over Indiana State), I've got an easy question to start with...

How will the Bradley Braves fare at this year's MVC men's basketball tournament?

Why Bradley Will Make the MVC Tournament Finals

It's arguable that Bradley has the most dynamic starting guards in the Missouri Valley Conference - but it would be a fairly short argument. Jake Odum is a hard-nosed point guard, but he doesn't have a great outside shot, and Tyler Brown (who's potential even for next year is incredibly scary) isn't quite ready yet. So we have Walt Lemon, Jr. and Dyricus Simms-Edwards, whose names are almost as long as their all-around basketball ability. Walt and DSE have always been quick strikers who can finish at the rim while taking contact, pull up for the jump shot on the run and in traffic (Southern Illinois found that out firsthand this year), negate one-on-one and help defense, and average 35 minutes if necessary. Now they have both gained the ability that separates elite wing players from good ones: taking the ball away.

Entering today's game, the two combo guards combined for 131 steals, far and away best in the conference. They both average better than two steals per 40 minutes. Dyricus is especially adept at thefts: he is sixth in the country in terms of steals per game and the leader in steals/personal foul ratio. Only Virginia Commonwealth's Briante Weber (who was recently featured in ESPN: The Magazine) has a higher steal-to-turnover ratio.

Newcomer Tyshon Pickett has given the Braves a two-way frontcourt player, a phrase not uttered on the Hilltop since Lawrence Wright was on campus. The young man from New Jersey came into today's game against Indiana State averaging 11 points and almost six rebounds (just under three on the offensive glass), is shooting 72 percent from the free-throw line and has even hit five of the nine threes he's attempted this year; he has two treys in his last two games. If that weren't enough, Pickett played the gutsiest game of any Bradley player I've seen today against Indiana State, scoring 17 points and pulling down seven rebounds after sustaining a knee injury near the end of the first half. It was evident Pickett was in pain, as he paused and gritted his teeth on every break in the action, but he stayed in the scrum for rebounds on both ends and had two clutch jump shots, both times with a defender in his face.

These three players exemplify a quality of this Bradley team that has been lacking in the last five years: toughness. Dyricus and Walt aren't afraid to stare down defenders and attacking guards alike, and Tyshon has taken the pressure off of Will Egolf and Jordan Prosser to take rebounds away from the larger front lines of Valley opponents. Bradley doesn't score at a high rate or shoot very well from the outside, but with their ability to create turnovers, score in the paint, and close games at the free throw line (all starters except Will Egolf shoot better than 67 percent), Bradley can make any team scramble for answers. With Creighton's recent fall from grace, and the confidence of hanging with Wichita State and Michigan for 40 minutes, the Braves are primed to make a surprise run to the MVC finals in St. Louis--and perhaps a trip to the NIT.

Why Bradley Will Lose Early in the MVC Tournament

Every team fights the injury bug at some point during the season, it's just who gets bitten and for how long. Recently, the Braves have had to deal with the maladies every coach fears facing going into the final stretch of the regular season: injuries that severely limit your star players. Dyricus is suffering from back spasms and was doubtful for today's game against the Sycamores (though he did play and turned in a great performance), and Tyshon Pickett suffered the leg injury today; Coach Geno Ford said on the radio post game that it was a "bruise". Both injuries are normal for basketball players, but they tend to stick around for the remainder of the season and limit a player's output, and with both Simms-Edwards and Pickett playing high minutes for Bradley this season, they won't have too much time to rest.

Apart from being slowed by injuries, Bradley has had a tough time getting out of their own way in the second halves of games this year, specifically with eight minutes left in the game. They were sticking close to Michigan both last year in Ann Arbor and this year in Peoria before the Wolverines pulled away (though a late flurry brought Bradley within five with about one minute to play this year), and it was the same script in road games at Creighton and Illinois State. There's no simple answer for what causes these second-half stumbles, but if the offense bogs down or a couple of calls don't go their way, the Braves tend to unravel on both ends of the floor for a stretch. With high-powered teams such as the Shockers, Bluejays and a resurgent Redbird squad, letting up for even 45 seconds of game time can put Bradley in an insurmountable hole. If they had an automatic three-point shooter in the rotation or a frontline to consistently feed the ball and slow the game down, they could fight back from these missteps, but it's been their curse this season. At this point in time, it's difficult to believe Coach Ford can find a cure for the eight-minute disease, and that will spell disaster on Friday afternoon--or even Thursday night--come tournament time.

Like any debate, this one cannot be won on words alone; Bradley will determine its own fate. The Braves have three games left to decide their seeding and, even with a 7-8 Valley record, find themselves 3.5 behind Wichita State. The Braves can win their final three contests (2-1 is a better bet) and finish as high as fourth or fifth, or drop them all and play the tough Thursday night game. The only thing for certain is that all questions will be answered come March.

Until then, I'll see you in the cheap seats.

JS