You won’t gain anything more but insight as to who the Sox have available and how they fit. It's close to spring training I think you’ll find this knowledge helpful when evaluating how these players play getting ready for the season. I think you’ll find there’s a lot of question marks in the Sox outfield, but a decent amount to be excited about as well.
So Long, Farewell
Carlos Quentin
Quentin was traded in early January to the San Diego Padres for two prospects, one of whom (Simon Castro) we’ll see pitching up with the Sox sometime this year if things go as planned. What we’ll miss out of Quentin is his homerun power in a hitter’s ballpark.. Moving to Petco should downgrade his power, but it was a smart move for Padres for the price. Outside of his power, Quentin didn’t bring much to the table. His mediocre batting average, paired with less than mediocre fielding skills, and atrocious base running makes him a player the Sox thought he would be. The Sox got one really good year out of Quentin. Outside of that, he has been regressing back to the player he was early in his career with Arizona.
Quentin was traded in early January to the San Diego Padres for two prospects, one of whom (Simon Castro) we’ll see pitching up with the Sox sometime this year if things go as planned. What we’ll miss out of Quentin is his homerun power in a hitter’s ballpark.. Moving to Petco should downgrade his power, but it was a smart move for Padres for the price. Outside of his power, Quentin didn’t bring much to the table. His mediocre batting average, paired with less than mediocre fielding skills, and atrocious base running makes him a player the Sox thought he would be. The Sox got one really good year out of Quentin. Outside of that, he has been regressing back to the player he was early in his career with Arizona.
Juan PierreNo surprise here: Juan Pierre is off to try to bid an opening spot in the Phillies organization, not with the White Sox. What you see is what you get in Juan Pierre though. He’ll slap singles all day and be a threat on the bases. His lack of power and poor defensive rate for 2011 ultimately became too costly for the Sox to avoid. .279 is a decent average, though...for someone that’ll net you 20 plus homeruns and play adequate defense. Pierre can’t do either. Although he’s projected to steal 20 – 25 for 2012, there’s simply not enough good to outweigh the bad.
The Gang (that's) All Here
Now we move onto where the Sox currently stand. With three spots on the field and four reasonable candidates, the Sox have a good spring training battle for players to solidify their starting spot. The projected starting lineup consists of Alex Rios in center field, Alejandro De Aza in left, Dayan Viciedo in right, and Brent Lillibridge fighting to find an opening. We’ll start with the fan favorite and man with the most to prove, Brent Lillibridge.
Brent Lillibridge
Lillibridge is coming off his best year by far in the majors. In 97 games, the Lilli-Hurt hit 13 homeruns and posted a .505 slugging percentage. Before you get too excited and start salivating at the idea of Lillibridge continuing that pace in a full year, there’s a few things I need to remind you of.
There’s one stat that stayed consistent last year: strikeouts. Lillibridge posted a 28.7 strikeout percentage. This is right on line with his career 28.6 strikeout percentage. To put that in perspective, the league average for strikeout percentage is around 20 percent. The lower 10 percent for strikeout percentage is more where Lillibridge falls in at around 27.5.If the strikeout numbers are the same, why did Lillibridge have a better batting average?
A look at his batted ball percentage only confuses things more. Usually a spike to this degree in stats comes from more line drives. Not the case with Lillibridge. His line drive rate dropped from 25.4% to 17.4% from 2010 to 2011. So where do the higher stats come in, then? Fly balls. Lillibridge posted a 50 percent fly ball rate, up 11 percent from 2010. This explains the homerun factor.
Expect to see Lillibridge take a Carlos Quentin-type regression from 2008. His true numbers should come out this year, and we’ll see the player he really is. If he was 24, I’d say he could be coming into his own as a ballplayer and might be figuring things out. At 28, he’s hit that mark already. Injury and the dings of the season will give Lillibridge a good amount of at bats at some point. He is a utility player, so he’ll find his time; for Sox fans, hope it’s in the outfield where he’s better defensively. He’ll also be a good use for late-innings pinch-hit opportunities against lefties, due to his power and high platoon split showing he knows how to hit lefties better.
Lillibridge is coming off his best year by far in the majors. In 97 games, the Lilli-Hurt hit 13 homeruns and posted a .505 slugging percentage. Before you get too excited and start salivating at the idea of Lillibridge continuing that pace in a full year, there’s a few things I need to remind you of.
There’s one stat that stayed consistent last year: strikeouts. Lillibridge posted a 28.7 strikeout percentage. This is right on line with his career 28.6 strikeout percentage. To put that in perspective, the league average for strikeout percentage is around 20 percent. The lower 10 percent for strikeout percentage is more where Lillibridge falls in at around 27.5.If the strikeout numbers are the same, why did Lillibridge have a better batting average?
A look at his batted ball percentage only confuses things more. Usually a spike to this degree in stats comes from more line drives. Not the case with Lillibridge. His line drive rate dropped from 25.4% to 17.4% from 2010 to 2011. So where do the higher stats come in, then? Fly balls. Lillibridge posted a 50 percent fly ball rate, up 11 percent from 2010. This explains the homerun factor.
Expect to see Lillibridge take a Carlos Quentin-type regression from 2008. His true numbers should come out this year, and we’ll see the player he really is. If he was 24, I’d say he could be coming into his own as a ballplayer and might be figuring things out. At 28, he’s hit that mark already. Injury and the dings of the season will give Lillibridge a good amount of at bats at some point. He is a utility player, so he’ll find his time; for Sox fans, hope it’s in the outfield where he’s better defensively. He’ll also be a good use for late-innings pinch-hit opportunities against lefties, due to his power and high platoon split showing he knows how to hit lefties better.
Dayan Viciedo
There’s a lot of upside I find in Viciedo, but there's also a lot of unknowns. I didn’t know where to begin to project Viciedo and his talents for 2012 so I looked to the experts. Bill James' projected stat line for 2012 is .274/.324/.455 with 21 homers. ZiPS' projection is .274/.328/.431 21 HR, so both projections are very similar.
With limited time in the majors (38 games in 2010 and 29 games in 2011), Viciedo has too small of a sample size to accurately stamp numbers on him. That’s what I think is most exciting about him. He’s also young, and at 22 years old, he’ll only get better. One big positive is his approach at the plate since coming to the majors. In the little time he was here, from 2010 to 2011, he has started taking more pitches at the plate leading to a rise of six percent in his walk percentage. Six percent is a huge jump, but unfortunately he was so far down to begin with that it only brought him up to eight percent, which is right around league average. He’s got the power and he's playing in the right park for that power, so if he really shines this year, don’t be too shocked.
There’s a lot of upside I find in Viciedo, but there's also a lot of unknowns. I didn’t know where to begin to project Viciedo and his talents for 2012 so I looked to the experts. Bill James' projected stat line for 2012 is .274/.324/.455 with 21 homers. ZiPS' projection is .274/.328/.431 21 HR, so both projections are very similar.
With limited time in the majors (38 games in 2010 and 29 games in 2011), Viciedo has too small of a sample size to accurately stamp numbers on him. That’s what I think is most exciting about him. He’s also young, and at 22 years old, he’ll only get better. One big positive is his approach at the plate since coming to the majors. In the little time he was here, from 2010 to 2011, he has started taking more pitches at the plate leading to a rise of six percent in his walk percentage. Six percent is a huge jump, but unfortunately he was so far down to begin with that it only brought him up to eight percent, which is right around league average. He’s got the power and he's playing in the right park for that power, so if he really shines this year, don’t be too shocked.
Alex Rios
Not much new can be said about Alex Rios that we don’t already knowingly shake our head. Most people look at his hitting downside as the biggest reason for disappointment out of Rios. I combine that with his defense which, like many things for Rios last year, hit a career low. Rios had a -7 defense rating (meaning he cost the White Sox seven defensive runs). I personally think he’s on a steady decline that won’t get any better anytime soon. That being said, he should hit .250 and get you 15-20 homeruns. It sounds rough, but the Sox just have to wait until 2015 when they can give him $1 million and buy out his contract.
Not much new can be said about Alex Rios that we don’t already knowingly shake our head. Most people look at his hitting downside as the biggest reason for disappointment out of Rios. I combine that with his defense which, like many things for Rios last year, hit a career low. Rios had a -7 defense rating (meaning he cost the White Sox seven defensive runs). I personally think he’s on a steady decline that won’t get any better anytime soon. That being said, he should hit .250 and get you 15-20 homeruns. It sounds rough, but the Sox just have to wait until 2015 when they can give him $1 million and buy out his contract.
Don't expect this guy to save the season.
Alejandro De Aza
Let’s bring Sox fans down to reality first and foremost: Alejandro De Aza will not be the Alejandro De Aza we saw last year in 54 games. That being said, there’s a lot to be excited about with De Aza. He should hit double digits in homeruns if he gets everyday playing time, and there’s nothing but love to be shown for his speed. He posted a 2.8 wins above replacement in 2011, so the Sox couldn’t ask for much more out of him.
We will see his batting average drop from .329 to somewhere a little below .300. If you want to give me a left fielder that hits close to .300, has decent power, and can steal 20 bases while keeping his walk percentage ( 9.9% last year) up, I’ll take that all day. The only downside to De Aza is his age. He’ll be 28 by mid-April, so his offensive numbers shouldn’t spike that much higher, but if he shows us anything similar to what he did in 54 games last year, then I’m excited.
Let’s bring Sox fans down to reality first and foremost: Alejandro De Aza will not be the Alejandro De Aza we saw last year in 54 games. That being said, there’s a lot to be excited about with De Aza. He should hit double digits in homeruns if he gets everyday playing time, and there’s nothing but love to be shown for his speed. He posted a 2.8 wins above replacement in 2011, so the Sox couldn’t ask for much more out of him.
We will see his batting average drop from .329 to somewhere a little below .300. If you want to give me a left fielder that hits close to .300, has decent power, and can steal 20 bases while keeping his walk percentage ( 9.9% last year) up, I’ll take that all day. The only downside to De Aza is his age. He’ll be 28 by mid-April, so his offensive numbers shouldn’t spike that much higher, but if he shows us anything similar to what he did in 54 games last year, then I’m excited.
Down on the farm? Not much to harvest
There’s not a lot of hope for outfielders in the Sox farm system to make a splash in the majors. Here’s a brief look at the Sox’s two best outfield prospects. Don’t get too excited—neither should be in the majors for another couple of years. It’s still something to keep an eye out for as they’ll both be at spring training this year and if they progress fast enough, who knows?
Trayce Thompson
The word on Thompson is the same everywhere: he won’t be playing centerfield in the majors. He’ll be a corner outfielder with a lot of power, but strikes out a ton. He should spend the season in high A ball, and the Sox don’t expect him up to the majors until 2014.
The word on Thompson is the same everywhere: he won’t be playing centerfield in the majors. He’ll be a corner outfielder with a lot of power, but strikes out a ton. He should spend the season in high A ball, and the Sox don’t expect him up to the majors until 2014.
Keenyn Walker
The biggest knock on Walker is the same as Thompson: too many strikeouts. He’s got a lot of speed and is an above-average defender, but lacks pop with the bat. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in spring training. as most scouts don’t have him in the majors until 2015. I could see that being pushed up if he bulks up and cuts down on strikeouts.
The biggest knock on Walker is the same as Thompson: too many strikeouts. He’s got a lot of speed and is an above-average defender, but lacks pop with the bat. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in spring training. as most scouts don’t have him in the majors until 2015. I could see that being pushed up if he bulks up and cuts down on strikeouts.
There shouldn’t be much hope for trades. The only thing I could potentially see is if they sign Cuban ballplayer Yoenis Cespedes. Right now the Marlins are in the lead, but there’s so many teams involved in that race for anyone to truly know who has the advantage.
Those people who know me know I’m a Cubs fan, so don’t think I did this as a knock on the Sox outfield. I gave great compliments all throughout this post, but the reality is the Sox are in a tough position with their current outfield. I’ll be analyzing the Cubs outfield soon enough, as they’re just as intriguing (just as bad, if not worse) with just as many question marks.
Follow Jon in his many bowling conquests and future posts on Twitter (@JPeterlin).
Those people who know me know I’m a Cubs fan, so don’t think I did this as a knock on the Sox outfield. I gave great compliments all throughout this post, but the reality is the Sox are in a tough position with their current outfield. I’ll be analyzing the Cubs outfield soon enough, as they’re just as intriguing (just as bad, if not worse) with just as many question marks.
Follow Jon in his many bowling conquests and future posts on Twitter (@JPeterlin).
