Voices from the Cheap Seats: Did Matt Flynn Cost Aaron Rodgers the MVP Trophy?

Another piece from Jon Peterlin on a very good question: did Matt Flynn's huge game against Detroit pave the way for a possible upset in MVP voting?

Heading into Week 15 of the NFL season, Aaron Rodgers had a 13-0 record and all of the analysts shining up Rodgers’ mantelpiece to place the MVP trophy. Then a Week 14 loss to Kansas City in Rodgers' worst outing of the year, while Drew Brees was busy throwing for five touchdowns and a 149.2 passer rating against a Viking team that had struggled all year long.

You know what happened the rest of the season:

—Brees goes out and not only breaks, but shatters Dan Marino’s single-season passing yards record, ending up with 5,476 on the year.
—Rodgers throws for five touchdowns against a disassembled Chicago Bears team.
—Backup Matt Flynn gets the start in the final game against the playoff bound Detroit Lions.

That's when something strange happened. Matt Flynn didn’t just go out and give everyone watching one of the most exciting shootouts of the year. He broke records. Six touchdowns against the Lions set a Packers franchise record.

(For the record, Jordy Nelson's name really annoys me. --JS)

Ain't sayin' nothin' new

Matt Flynn isn’t new to getting his chance to start at the end of the season. At the end of the 2010 season, Flynn got two starts. He played poorly against a (then) not-so-good Detroit Lions team, but in his second start, he played very well in a close loss to a 14-2 Patriots team that would see their season end in a one-and-done loss to the Jets. Needless to say, putting up a 100 passer rating and throwing three touchdowns against a very competitive New England team impressed some people. Then in Week 17 of this season he came out and shined.

Was Flynn that much more improved or was Rodgers playing with loaded weapons? Going over the Green Bay receiving corps is detailing a who’s who of receivers I want on my All-Madden team. Highlighting the list is 2012 pro bowler Greg Jennings and Rodgers' go-to receiver in Jordy Nelson. Throw in Donald Driver, James Jones, and tight end Jermichael Finley and not many people can be surprised by the Packers' impressive 2011 season.


I’m not saying that if you threw in Brees' backup Chase Daniel, he’d throw for 400-plus yards. Obviously Flynn has talent, and that speaks volumes about the Green Bay organization that they can cultivate another potentially solid number-one starter using the same system with Flynn that developed Aaron Rodgers.

Flynn steps in, Brees steps up

Flynn didn’t get the same opportunity as Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, who were in the same draft class but  started their rookie seasons.  That’s what being drafted in the seventh round does. He just wasn’t perceived as the next great thing back in 2008, and question marks are still there. That’s what I find the most intriguing. Nobody knows what will become of Matt Flynn, yet this one game may single handedly cost Rodgers an MVP title. They take Flynn for what he should be, a seventh rounder, not what he could be after four years of playing backup in Green Bay. I can’t say I blame anyone for doing that either. For every Tom Brady, there’s a million late-round quarterbacks who go on to be nothing more.

Are the people voting on the MVP award voting on the past few weeks, not a whole season? They’re not supposed to, but it’s hard not to be swayed by what you’ve recently seen: Drew Brees setting records.

Total passing yards – 5,476
300-yard passing games – 13
Completions – 468
Consecutive games of 20 completed passes – 36
Completion percentage – 71.2%

The only stat Rodgers' supporters have against Drew Brees in MVP voting is the difference in interceptions. Rodgers has only six interceptions on the year with no multiple interception games. Drew Brees has 14, including a season-high three against Tampa Bay in Week 6.

Voting for the MVP award has already happened. None of this talk changes who has won the award, even though nobody will find out until Super Bowl Sunday. For what it’s worth, I think Rodgers will still receive the award, but there is a much higher chance now that it could go to Brees. If it does, I wonder if Rodgers will always think on what would’ve happened had he gotten the start in week 17. I know he’ll claim he doesn’t care about the outcome as long as the Packers continue to win, and that’s all I’d expect him to say.

Jon Peterlin is a lifelong Chicagoan, avid bowler, Bears and (sigh) Cubs fan. When he's not using the overwhelming advantage of being a left-handed bowler to hustle marks at Bleeker's Bowl on 95th Street, he's asking big questions about sports issues. Follow Jon on Twitter @JPeterlin.

The FORgotTEn Man

Reality set in for a while, anyway.

Right after the bye week, when the Bears were maybe one or two plays away from sliding into the "second division," as the old timers would say, Matt Forte caught fire.

It wasn't solely the fact that offensive line coach Mike Tice came up to Mike Martz and said the team should run the ball more, as Dan LeBatard noted on his show this week. If that were the only reason for the Bears' success in the second half of the season, Chester Taylor's face wouldn't be on the back of milk cartons. (Seriously, 2.4 yards per carry for your third-down back? Bring back Adrian Peterson the Lesser.)

It was a lot to do with Matt Forte.

The rookie from Tulane exploded out of nowhere in 2008, but was derailed by the previous season's workload in 2009. This year, Forte was struggling through the Bears' pass-heavy offense before the conversation between the Two Mikes Not Named Ditka.

The rest is history, albeit forgotten history. Forte averaged 107 all-purpose YPG after the bye and didn't have a game where he averaged less than three yards per carry after the loss to the Redskins. In contrast, he had five such games before the midseason break.

It'd be enough to say that Forte broke the thousand yards plateau in 80 fewer carries than his rookie season. But what's astounding to me is that after five rushing fumbles last year, he didn't have one in 2010. Not one fumble running the ball. Not one.

Somewhere, Adrian Peterson the Greater is reading that paragraph while burning a pair of Wrangler jeans.

So after a mediocre start trying to implement the "Greatest Show on Turf" at the Spaceship Formerly Named Soldier Field, the Bears realized they had a competent running back that could do more than catch the football. Success ensued. Reality was back in Chicago: the Bears were a running team again.

Yet if you listen to all the ESPN reports, expert analysis and newspaper predictions, the money matchup is Rodgers vs. Cutler. Jay Cutler has to go toe-to-toe and blow-for-blow with A-Rodg (I said it, Clark) for the Bears to have a chance at going to the Super Bowl.

Excuse me for one second. This is the same Jay Cutler no one could trust to hold onto a cinnamon roll about six weeks ago. The same Jay Cutler that's had baby fat since eighth grade. The same Jay Cutler that, as everybody and their mama loved to point out, won his first playoff game since high school last Sunday.

Now I don't give a flying cheesehead about the last fact, but I do care about the first two (moreso the second than the first). If you're not going to trust him with the keys the whole season, why put the onus on him at the ultimate crunch time?

As Sarah Palin has said to many a smart idea, no!

The Bears' success on offense lies with Matt Forte. Outside of the washout against New England, Forte posted good numbers in the second half and murked both the Jets' (19 carries, 113 yards) and Packers' (15-91) defenses in the final two weeks of the season. With Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson primarly blitzing the quarterback and Tramon Williams locking down the strong side wideout, it will be up to Forte to keep the Packers honest on defense.

The sports writers all forgot about Matt Forte this week. Let's hope the Packers did too.

As always, see you in the cheap seats tomorrow.

(Image idea credit to Larry and Tim Smagacz. Get us a win, Hegewisch!)

JS